Latest‐Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low‐Fertility Countries

After decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low-fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age-specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950– 2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990–2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child

The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach

We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior research that had mainly used a period approach. We compare the mean intended number of children among young women aged 20 to 24 (born in the early 1970s), meas ured during the 1990s in the Fertility and Family Surveys, with data on completed fertility in the same cohorts around age 40. In a similar manner, we compare the share who state that they do not want a child with actual cohort childlessness. Our exploration is informed by the cognitive-social model of fertility intentions devel- oped by Bachrach and Morgan (Popul Dev Rev 39(3):459-485, 2013). In all coun- tries, women eventually had, on average, fewer children than the earlier expectations in their birth cohort, and more often than intended, they remained childless. The results reveal distinct regional patterns, which are most apparent for childlessness. The gap between intended and actual childlessness is widest in the Southern Euro- pean and the German-speaking countries and smallest in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, we analyze the aggregate intentions-fertility gap among women with different levels of education. The gap is largest among highly educated women in most countries studied and the educational gradient varies by region, most distinctively for childlessness. Differences between countries suggest that contextual factors-norms about parenthood, work-family policies, unemployment-shape women's fertility goals, total family size, and the gap between them

Assessing Short-Term Fertility Intentions and Their Realisation Using the Generations and Gender Survey : Pitfalls and Challenges

The use of fertility intention questions to study individual childbearing behaviour has developed rapidly in recent decades. In Europe, the Generations and Gender Surveys are the main sources of cross-national data on fertility intentions and their realisation. This study investigates how an inconsistent implementation of a question about wanting a child now affects the cross-country comparability of intentions to have a child within the next three years and their realisation. We conduct our analysis separately for women and men at prime and late reproductive ages in Austria, France, Italy and Poland. The results show that the overall share of respondents intending to have a child at some point in their life is similar in all four analysed countries. However, once the time horizon and the degree of certainty of fertility intentions are included, substantial cross-country differences appear, particularly in terms of proceptive behaviour and, consequently, the realisation of fertility intentions. We conclude that the inconsistent questionnaire adaptation makes it very difficult to assess the role of country context in the realisation of childbearing intentions

Neither single, nor in a couple. A study of living apart together in France

Among living arrangements, living apart together relationships arouse curiosity on the part of sociologists, demographers and even the media. From a scientific point of view, how have noncohabiting relationships evolved in recent decades? How can we recognise these relationships, and who are the populations concerned? The present study provides an overall view into noncohabiting relationships in France, shedding light on the characteristics of both the individuals concerned and their relationships. There has been no recent increase in the prevalence of this living arrangement. It competes with cohabiting relationships both among students and among people with cohabiting children. Four main groups of living apart relationships are described: "Young adults", "Out of a family", "Seniors." The reasons for living apart as well as future intentions vary considerably across these groups.cohabitation, Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), intimate relationship, living apart together (LAT), living arrangements, typology

Late childbearing continues to increase in developed countries

Broad societal and cultural changes since the 1970s have provided incentives for young people to postpone parenthood. The greater access to and longer pursuit of higher education, the greater involvement of women in the labour market, and changes in family behaviour have contributed to a long-term increase in age at parenthood. The spread of effective contraception and wider access to abortion have also played a part, helping women and couples better plan the timing of births. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we document a rise in fertility rates among women aged 40 and older in low-fertility countries of Europe, East Asia, North America, and Australia

Evaluation of the partnership histories in the Centre for Population Change GHS time series dataset

A combined time series of the General Household Survey datasets from 1979 to 2007 has been compiled by the Centre for Population Change (CPC). This dataset includes, along with socio-economic variables, the demographic histories collected in the Family Information section of the GHS questionnaire over the GHS rounds covered, in harmonised form. The present paper evaluates both the internal consistency of the marriage and cohabitation histories and their correspondence with external sources.The data are weighted using new weights generated by CPC for the analysis of these data. Overall, cumulative proportions married by each age for the cohorts of 1951-55 to 1966-70 correspond well with ONS figures for England and Wales, though there are some systematic disparities in selected years. As found in an earlier study, retrospective estimates from the 2000-07 histories of the proportions cohabiting at a point in time are somewhat above the cross-sectional estimates at survey 5 and 10years before

The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe, women born 1916-65

During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East

Covid-19 Global Demographic Research Needs? Replacing Speculative Commentaries with Robust Cross-national Comparisons

This essay on global demographic research needs argues that demographers need to intensify our efforts to develop robust, cross-nationally comparative datasets

Contribution of the Rise in Cohabiting Parenthood to Family Instability: Cohort Change in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia

In this study, we investigate through microsimulation the link between cohabiting parenthood and family instability. We identify mechanisms through which increases in cohabiting parenthood may contribute to overall increases in separation among parents, linking micro-level processes to macro-level outcomes. Analyses are based on representative surveys in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia (represented by Norway and Sweden), with full histories of women's unions and births. We first generate parameters for the risk of first and higher-order birth and union events by woman's birth cohort and country. The estimated parameters are used to generate country- and cohort-specific populations of women with stochastically predicted family life courses. We use the hypothetical populations to decompose changes in the percentage of mothers who separate/divorce across maternal birth cohorts (1940s to 1950s, 1950s to 1960s, 1960s to 1970s), identifying how much of the change can be attributed to shifts in union status at first birth and how much is due to change in separation rates for each union type. We find that when cohabiting births were uncommon, increases in parents' separation were driven primarily by increases in divorce among married parents. When cohabiting parenthood became more visible, it also became a larger component, but continued increases in parents' divorce also contributed to increasing parental separation. When cohabiting births became quite common, the higher separation rates of cohabiting parents began to play a greater role than married parents' divorce. When most couples had their first birth in cohabitation, those having children in marriage were increasingly selected from the most stable relationships, and their decreasing divorce rates offset the fact that increasing proportions of children were born in somewhat less stable cohabiting unions

Educational differences in childbearing widen in Britain

How does women’s education influence whether they have children or not, how old they are when they have their first child and how many children they go on to have? How has this changed over time for mothers born between 1940 and 1969? This research finds that educational differences in childbearing have increased over time